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What can we expect from the fed with rising inflation in the US over the next year?
The annual inflation rate for the United States is 8.3% for the 12 months ended August 2022 after rising 8.5% previously, according to U.S. Labor Department data published Sept. 13. The next inflation update is scheduled for release on Oct. 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET. It will offer the rate of inflation over the 12 months that ended September 2022.
According to the New York Times, the Central bankers have already raised interest rates considerably in an attempt to slow the economy and temper price increases. Business activity is slowing in response, but it is not falling off a cliff: Employers continue to hire, wages are rising, and inflation has remained stubbornly quick. Higher interest rates temper inflation by making it more expensive to borrow money, discouraging both consumption and business expansions. That weighs on wage growth and can even push unemployment higher. Firms cannot charge as much in a slowing economy, and inflation cools down.
Meanwhile, higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. However, the central bank has emphasized that it has an obligation to get inflation back in check. So, the Fed has two economic goals: maximum employment and stable inflation of around 2 percent. Given that risk and how much rates have already moved this year, many economists expect that the Fed may soon want to slow down the increases.
Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services in an economy is rising, which can result in a decrease in purchasing power. In the US, inflation is measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the price changes of a basket of goods and services purchased by households.
There are several factors that can contribute to inflation in the US, including:
Demand-pull inflation: This occurs when there is a high demand for goods and services relative to their supply, which can lead to price increases as businesses compete for limited resources.
Cost-push inflation: This occurs when there is an increase in the cost of production, such as higher wages or raw material costs, which can lead to businesses raising prices to maintain their profit margins.
Money supply: The amount of money in circulation can also affect inflation. If the supply of money increases faster than the supply of goods and services, this can lead to inflation.
The Federal Reserve is responsible for setting monetary policy in the US, which includes managing interest rates, regulating the money supply, and promoting economic stability. Inflation is one of the key factors that the Federal Reserve takes into consideration when making monetary policy decisions.
If inflation rises above the Federal Reserve's target rate of 2%, the Fed may consider raising interest rates to cool down the economy and prevent inflation from spiraling out of control. This would make borrowing more expensive and slow down spending, which can help reduce inflationary pressure.
On the other hand, if inflation is caused by supply chain disruptions or other temporary factors, the Fed may take a more cautious approach and wait for the situation to resolve itself. Additionally, the Fed has indicated that it is willing to tolerate slightly higher inflation in the short-term to support a strong economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Ultimately, the Federal Reserve's response to rising inflation will depend on a range of economic factors and conditions, and will be based on careful analysis and consideration of the data. Investors and individuals should consult with financial advisors and stay informed about the latest economic developments and policy decisions.